[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (14 February 24) issued 0031 UT on 14 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (07 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Feb  142      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Feb  159      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Feb  138      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10 Feb  139      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

11 Feb  157      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Feb  134      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      15% enhanced after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Feb  144      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Comment: Polar cap HF communications were impacted by increased absorption (2db)
on 13-Feb. This absorption is now declining. The absorption was associated
with a solar proton event.

Predicted Monthly T index for February: 108

2. FORECAST (14 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: There is a chance for depressed ionospheric 
conditions on 15-Feb for the southern Australian region
due to a possible CME arrival on 14-Feb that was expected on
13-Feb. MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days of the
week.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 15-Feb. Otherwise normal. SWFs possible.

T index: 115
ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 
13 February and is current for 14-15 Feb. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 19 was issued on 13 February and is current for 13-15 
Feb.

3. OUTLOOK (21 FEBRUARY - 22 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No significant degraded periods expected.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au