[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (25 December 24) issued 0132 UT on 25 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 25 DECEMBER 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
18 Dec   63      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Dec  111      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Dec  134      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Dec  127      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Dec  101      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Dec  114      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

24 Dec  132      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December: 117

2. FORECAST (25 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: Depressed 10-15% on 26-Dec, possibly leading into 27-Dec. Sporadic-E is
expected to be common during local night hours. 
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 26-Dec, normal to fair on 28-Dec, and normal on
other days. Shortwave fadeouts possible. 

T index: 117
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 148 was issued on 23 December 
and is current for 24-26 Dec.

3. OUTLOOK (01 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No significant degraded periods expected.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au