[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (27 September 23) issued 0017 UT on 27 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 27 SEPTEMBER 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (20 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
20 Sep   99      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

21 Sep  105      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Sep  109      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Sep  112      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-60%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Sep  113      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

25 Sep  105      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.

26 Sep  129      Normal-fair            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Comment: G1 periods observed in Australian region
overnight on 26-Sep.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

2. FORECAST (27 SEPTEMBER - 03 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Southern Australian region MUFs depressed 15%
early in UT day on 27-Sep then recovering. MUFs near 
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair-normal early in UT day on 27-Sep
and on 29-Sep during local night hours. Normal conditions 
expected 28-Sep and 30-Sep to 03-Oct.

T index: 96
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on 24 September 
and is current for 25-27 Sep.

3. OUTLOOK (04 OCTOBER - 03 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
9 Oct,  15-16 Oct,  26 Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au