[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (13 September 23) issued 0029 UT on 13 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 13 SEPTEMBER 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (06 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
06 Sep  102      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Sep  114      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

08 Sep  104      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Sep  118      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

10 Sep  110      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

11 Sep  105      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

12 Sep  116      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

Comment: degraded HF conditions were observed for
the southern Australian region during local night hours
12-Sep. Southern Australian region MUFs were depressed 15%
after local dawn (late in UT day 12-Sep) and are expected
to recover early in UT day 13-Sep. Northern Australian 
region MUFS have remained near normal.

2. FORECAST (13 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values.

Propagation conditions: Fair-Normal on 13-Sep, then normal. 
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts possible.

T index: 96
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 89 was issued on 11 September 
and is current for 11-13 Sep. ASWFC HF Communications Warning 
90 was issued on 12 September and is current for 13 Sep only.

3. OUTLOOK (20 SEPTEMBER - 20 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
29-30 Sep

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au