[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (04 October 23) issued 0150 UT on 04 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 04 OCTOBER 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (27 SEPTEMBER - 03 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
27 Sep  113      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Sep  107      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Sep  126      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Sep  108      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Oct  109      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Oct  122      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Oct  137      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  98

2. FORECAST (04 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in
the Australian region. 

Propagation conditions: Mostly normal propagation conditions expected. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible throughout the week.

T index: 98
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 103 was issued on 2 October 
and is current for 2-4 Oct.

3. OUTLOOK (11 OCTOBER - 10 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
15 Oct, 27 Oct, 7 Nov

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au