[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (29 November 23) issued 0210 UT on 29 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 29 NOVEMBER 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
22 Nov   56      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Nov   82      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Nov  127      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Nov  114      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

26 Nov   57      Poor              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

27 Nov  140      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Nov  143      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 100

2. FORECAST (29 NOVEMBER - 05 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 30% on 30 Nov to 1 Dec
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Poor on 30 Nov to 1 Dec. Degraded conditions will likely
continue from 2-Dec onwards but should improve.. SWFs possible early in week.

T index: 100
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 121 was issued on 28 November 
and is current for 28-30 Nov.

3. OUTLOOK (06 DECEMBER - 05 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
05-07 Dec,  15 Dec, 17 Dec,  20 Dec, 27 Dec

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au