[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (15 November 23) issued 0033 UT on 15 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 15 NOVEMBER 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (08 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
08 Nov  134      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Nov  131      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Nov  128      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Nov  131      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Nov  132      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

13 Nov  115      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Nov  125      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 100

2. FORECAST (15 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: briefly depressed after local dawn over 15-16 Nov
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days to 15-20% enhanced

Propagation conditions: Fair on 16 Nov. Otherwise normal. SWFs possible early in
week.

T index: 100
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 113 was issued on 14 November 
and is current for 15-16 Nov.

3. OUTLOOK (22 NOVEMBER - 22 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
22-23 Nov,  25 Nov,  14 Dec,  19 Dec

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au