[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (29 March 23) issued 0039 UT on 29 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 29 MARCH 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 MARCH - 28 MARCH)
Date   T index   Conditions        
22 Mar  143      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-60%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 
      Mildly elevated absorption observed at times.

23 Mar  141      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-85% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-55% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Variable during local night, with strong spread F.
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Strongly degraded, strong spread F observed,
      with MUFs near predicted monthly values.

24 Mar   89      Poor-Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40-50% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Degraded and depressed by 35% over the UT day.

25 Mar  139      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Mar  137      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 110% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40-45% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Mar  137      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-105%
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30-40% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Mar  146      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30-35%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  80

Comment:Unexpectedly strong G1-G2 geomagnetic activity was observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 23-24 Mar attributed to a 
glancing blow from a slow CME from an earlier solar filament eruption. 
The planetary conditions reach G3 and G4 on these two days. The Australian
regional ionosphere responded to the geomagnetic activity with depressed
frequencies of support of up to 30-50% observed from late in the UT day on
23-Mar and on 24 Mar for the southern Australian region. Strong spread F, 
(indicating degraded HF conditions) were observed during local night hours
on these days. Strongly enhanced ionospheric conditions were then observed 
during the local day on 25-Mar.


2. FORECAST (29 MARCH - 04 APRIL) 
MUFS: generally near predicted monthly values, possibly briefly depressed 
after local dawn on 31 Mar and 01 Apr.

Propagation conditions: Fair local night on 31 Mar and 01 Apr. Otherwise normal.

T index: 80

3. OUTLOOK (05 APRIL - 05 MAY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
11 Apr,  28 Apr

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au