[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (15 March 23) issued 0041 UT on 15 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 15 MARCH 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (08 MARCH - 14 MARCH)
Date   T index   Conditions        
08 Mar  128      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-60%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

09 Mar  138      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-65%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Mar  113      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Mar  145      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-50% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Mar  150      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-90% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-65% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35-40% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Mar  142      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

14 Mar  163      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-65% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30-55% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35-40% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      S1 Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed at Mawson.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  80

2. FORECAST (15 MARCH - 21 MARCH) 
MUFS: MUFs generally near predicted monthly values
to 15-20% enhanced. Mild 15% depressions possible after 
local dawn on 15 and 16-Mar for the southern Australian region.


Propagation conditions: Fair during local night and early in the UT
day on 15-16 Mar for southern Australian region. Good HF conditions for
northern Australian region. SWFs more likely after 18-Mar due possible 
return previously flaring solar region.

T index: 120

3. OUTLOOK (22 MARCH - 21 APRIL)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
01-Apr, 05-Apr and 11-Apr

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au