[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (01 March 23) issued 0100 UT on 01 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 01 MARCH 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
22 Feb  111      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Feb  118      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Feb  125      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Feb  142      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

26 Feb  135      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 95% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

27 Feb   90      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Feb   69      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February: 117

2. FORECAST (01 MARCH - 07 MARCH) 
MUFS: 
MUFS are expected to be near predicted monthly values, with
some depressions possible on 1-Mar due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity. MUFS are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 2-3 Mar and near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 4-7 Mar, with mild depressions possible due to high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole rotating
towards a geoeffective position.

Propagation conditions: 
Propagation conditions are expected to be normal throughout the
week, with degraded conditions at high latitudes possible on 
1-Mar due to ongoing geomagnetic activity and 4-7 Mar due to 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible with an increased chance after 3-Mar due to new
active regions rotating around the solar disk.

T index: 76
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 1 March 
and is current for 1-3 Mar.

3. OUTLOOK (08 MARCH - 07 APRIL)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
20-26 Mar, 31-Mar to 4-Apr

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au