[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (11 January 23) issued 0020 UT on 11 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 11 JANUARY 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Jan  124      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Jan   88      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Jan   65      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Jan  104      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Jan  120      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jan  118      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Jan  126      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  71

Comment: Generally enhanced ionospheric frequencies of support
observed this week. Strong sporadic E observed at middle
latitudes sites at times during the week.

2. FORECAST (11 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

Propagation conditions: Normal. SWFs probable this week.
There are currently four active solar regions on the solar
disk capable of R1-R2 flares, with isolated further R3 activity
possible. Further fadeouts are expected.

T index: 90
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 10 January 
and is current for 11-13 Jan.

3. OUTLOOK (18 JANUARY - 17 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
19-20 Jan,  22-23 Jan,  15-16 Feb

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au