[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (06 December 23) issued 1040 UT on 06 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 06 DECEMBER 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
+++ Weekly forecast corrected due to reanalysis of CME activity on 05-Dec +++
1. SUMMARY (29 NOVEMBER - 05 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
29 Nov  138      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Nov  128      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Dec   95      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

02 Dec   22      Poor              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

03 Dec  120      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Dec  132      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Dec  107      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December: 100





Comment: CME activity expected for 07-08 Dec has been reanalysed
and only mild geomagnetic activity is now expected over 07-08 Dec.

2. FORECAST (06 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: briefly depressed after local dawn on 07 and 08 Dec for
southern Australian region only. MUFs near predicted monthly values 
on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair conditions during local night 07 and 08 Dec
and after local dawn. Otherwise normal. SWFs probable early in week.

T index: 100
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 125 was issued on 5 December 
and is current for 6-8 Dec. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 126 was issued on 5 December and is current for 7-8 Dec.

3. OUTLOOK (13 DECEMBER - 12 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
14 Dec,  19 Dec,  22 Dec

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au