[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (16 August 23) issued 0037 UT on 16 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 16 AUGUST 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 Aug  106      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10 Aug  105      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Aug  112      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Aug  107      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Aug  120      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Aug  109      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

15 Aug  120      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-60%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  88

2. FORECAST (16 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

Propagation conditions: Mostly normal, with fair conditions
on 22-Aug for the southern Australian region. Isolated SWFs possible 
this week due to currently developing solar regions.

T index: 110

3. OUTLOOK (23 AUGUST - 22 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
18 Sep

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au