[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (16 November 22) issued 0026 UT on 16 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 16 NOVEMBER 2022 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 Nov   78      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Nov   90      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Nov  118      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Nov   75      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Nov   89      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Nov   93      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Nov   89      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  70

2. FORECAST (16 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
early the week, then near predicted monthly values 
toward the second half of the week. MUFs may be briefly 
depressed after local dawn on 18-19 Nov for the southern 
Australian region. 

Propagation conditions: Fair local night 17 and 18 Nov, 
otherwise normal. Isolated SWFs possible early in the week.

T index: 70
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on 15 November 
and is current for 15-17 Nov. (fadeouts).

3. OUTLOOK (23 NOVEMBER - 23 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
25-26 Nov,  30 Nov,  22 Dec  for the
southern Australian region only.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au