[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (11 May 16) issued 0149 UT on 11 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 11 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 MAY - 10 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 May   33      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 May   34      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 May   35      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 May   27      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 May   44      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

09 May   16      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

10 May    9      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  47

2. FORECAST (11 MAY - 17 MAY) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values.

Degradation in HF conditions MUFs is possible for 11 May, especially 
over the southern Australian regions and Antarctica. As geomagnetic 
activity returns to Quiet, expect HF conditions to improve during 
12-14 May. Degraded HF propagation conditions are also possible 
during 15-17 May.

T index: 47
IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 8 May and is current 
for 9-11 May.

3. OUTLOOK (18 MAY - 17 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
5-7 Jun.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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