[Ips-whfpr] SWS Weekly Prop. Report (14 December 16) issued 0129 UT on 14 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 14 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (07 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Dec   14      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

08 Dec    4      Fair-Normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day.
     Depressed by 35% during local night.
  Niue Island Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day.
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Dec    5      Fair-Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night with periods of sporadic-E.
      Periods of equatorial spread-F local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Periods of equatorial spread-F. 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Periods of strong sporadic-E after local dawn E Australian area
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Periods of disturbance due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 

10 Dec  -10      Poor-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

11 Dec   -9      Poor-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Dec   -7      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

13 Dec  -19      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  24

2. FORECAST (14 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER)

Conditions are expected to trend towards predicted monthly values this week. 
However, depressions are likely. HF users are advised to use frequencies 
lower than the predicted monthly values.
 
MUFS: 30% lower to near predicted monthly values.

Propagation conditions: Depressed to Normal. 

No SWFs.

T index: 24

SWS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 12 December and 
is current for 12-14 Dec.

3. OUTLOOK (21 DECEMBER - 20 JANUARY)

Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
21-22 Dec,  3 Jan,  5-6 Jan,  16-18 Jan

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.