[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (14 October 15) issued 0120 UT on 14 Oct 2015

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 14 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (07 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Oct   24      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

08 Oct  -25      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

09 Oct  -12      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

10 Oct    2      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

11 Oct   14      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

12 Oct   15      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

13 Oct    4      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  70

2. FORECAST (14 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Minor to moderate depressions possible from 14 to 17 Oct and on 20 Oct
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days with the possibility of minor
depressions on these days too.

Propagation conditions: Fair to poor from 14 to 17 Oct and on 20 Oct. Otherwise
mostly normal to fair. SWFs possible
throughout this period.

T index: 8
IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 13 October and 
is current for 13-15 Oct.

3. OUTLOOK (21 OCTOBER - 20 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
31 Oct to 1 Nov,  5 Nov,  8 Nov,  10 to 13 Nov,  16 Nov

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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