[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (23 December 15) issued 0330 UT on 23 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 23 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
16 Dec   66      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mildly depressed local day, otherwise
      near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Townsville enhanced 20% around local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values
      to mildly enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Scott Base no data.

17 Dec   86      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn. 
      Equatorial spread-F observed local night. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Dec   69      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Dec   80      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      No data after 19UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable enhancements to 20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Dec  105      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with extended periods of disturbance.

21 Dec  -20      Poor              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 45% through the day
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 55% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% at other times
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

22 Dec   24      Poor              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  63

2. FORECAST (23 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: briefly depressed after local dawn on 27 Dec
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 27 Dec. Otherwise normal. SWFs probable early in
week.

T index: 63
IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 22 December and 
is current for 22-23 Dec. IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 83 
was issued on 22 December and is current for 22-24 Dec.

3. OUTLOOK (30 DECEMBER - 29 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
1-3 Jan,  23 Jan

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.