[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (18 September 13) issued 0357 UT on 18 Sep 2013

Wed Sep 18 13:57:05 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 18 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (11 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
11 Sep   65      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed 20-35% 02, 11-12, 15-21, 23 UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-35% 00-11 UT. Depressed 20-35% 
      14-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at
      other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 15%
      depressed. Depressed 20-30% 17-22 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15-20% during local night. Enhanced
      at Perth 15-30% 14-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Some enhancements
      to 30%

12 Sep   65      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-35% 06-14 UT. Depressed 25-35% 19-23
      UT. Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 20-35% 00, 01, 13-20 UT. Depressed to 15%
      02-08 UT. Near predicted monthly values otherwise.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Occasional depressions to 25% 15-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Spread F at Hobart and Perth for about last 8 hours
      of darkness.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

13 Sep   74      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35%
      15-19, 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-45% 00-10 UT. Depressed 20-35%
      13-17 UT. Mostly near predicted monthly values at
      other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced at Darwin
      25-35% 08-11, 15-16 UT, and 60-85% 12-14 UT. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Some night spread F
      at Hobart and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

14 Sep   62      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-40% 07-13 UT. Depressed 20-30% 15-23
      UT. Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressed 35-50% 14-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. Depressed
      to 20% 04-08 UT, 20-40% 14-18, 21 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F at Hobart
      and pre-dawn at Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

15 Sep   60      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-40% 08-13 UT. Depressed 20-25% 20-23
      UT. Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 35-40% 12-17 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% 06-08, 13-21, 23 UT at Darwin and
      04-06, 14-17, 23 UT at Townsville. Near predicted
      monthly values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. Night
      spread F at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

16 Sep   61      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed 5-35% for most of the day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 15-30% during 00-04, 12-17 and 20-22 UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Conditions depressed 5-30% for most of the day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Sep   66      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-50% during 06-14 UT.
      Depressed by up to 15% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed throughout most of the day.
      Depressed by 15-30% during 00-07 UT, 
      50% during 11-12 UT, and 15-30% during 13-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressions of 5-15% throughout the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  75

2. FORECAST (18 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER) 

MUFS: Intervals with MUFs below predicted monthly values are likely 
for low latitude circuits. However, daytime MUFs may be above 
predicted monthly values for the Cocos Island Region. The solar 
UV flux is trending upwards again and will increase the probability 
of near normal propagation conditions, especially for mid-latitude 
circuits. In general, MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values. 

Propagation conditions: Normal. SWFs are possible as new active regions
rotate across the visible solar disk. 

T index: 75

3. OUTLOOK (25 SEPTEMBER - 25 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
29 Sep,  14 Oct

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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