[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (11 December 13) issued 0211 UT on 11 Dec 2013

Wed Dec 11 13:11:37 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 11 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Dec  124      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-50%
      08-13, 22-23 UT. Strong sporadic E 04-05 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 15-30%
      00-03, 10-14, 22 UT. Strong sporadic E 21 UT.
      No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 00-11
      UT then enhanced 15-30%. Perth MUFs 25-35% enhanced.
      Strong sporadic E at times 00-11 UT and at Perth 19-21 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with some enhancements
      to 30% mostly in the latter half of the period.

05 Dec  138      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 10-30%. Sporadic E 04,07,09 and 20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 20-35% 09-18 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 20-35%. Near predicted monthly values at
      Brisbane and Norfolk Is. 16-23 UT. Mostly near
      predicted monthly values at Christchurch. Sporadic
      E observed around 00-02 UT and 08-11 UT at eastern
      Australian stations and 17-20 UT at Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 00-05
      UT, then near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

06 Dec  131      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-35%
      00-03, 11-12 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-08, 22-23 UT.
      Enhanced 15-25% 09-12 UT, then 30-50% enhanced.
      No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values until about
      12 UT then enhanced 20-35%. Perth MUFs 20-40%
      enhanced. Some sporadic E 04-11 UT eastern stations
      03-06, 20-22 UT at Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

07 Dec  133      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-07, 14, 18-23
      UT. Enhanced 15-40% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-11, 23 UT. Enhanced
      20-40% 12-23 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-05, 20-23 UT.
      Enhanced 20-35% at other times. Perth, near predicted
      monthly values 00-16 UT then enhanced 25-35%. Sporadic
      E mostly 06-11 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

08 Dec  114      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-40% 04-12, 19 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values at other times. Strong sporadic
      E 15-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 02-19 UT. Enhanced
      20-30% at other times. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% mostly 04-09 UT. Otherwise mostly near
      predicted monthly values. Sporadic E at Christchurch
      12-23 UT, Hobart 13-15, 18, 22-23 UT and on occasions
      at other east Australia stations 00-10, 21-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally weak ionosphere along with sporadic E.
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

09 Dec  116      Normal            
MUFS:
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Dec  133      Normal            
MUFS:
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  73

2. FORECAST (11 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values.

Propagation conditions: Normal to Good with enhancements of ~15% at 
times due to strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels. 
SWFs probable early in week.

T index: 73

3. OUTLOOK (18 DECEMBER - 17 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
4 Jan

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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