[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (16 May 12) issued 0138 UT on 16 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 16 11:38:17 EST 2012 

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 16 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 MAY - 15 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 May   80      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 40% 15-16UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed to 40% 12-14UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Darwin depressed 40% 12-14UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Perth no data after 04UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.

10 May   71      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% until local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Darwin depressed 40% 12-18UT.
      Townsville depressed 30-40% 12-15UT.
      Learmonth depressed 40% 11-15UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread-F observed local night Sydney, Canberra.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Extended periods of poor ionospheric support. 

11 May   78      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed 30-50% 07-13UT.
      Depressed 20% 14-16UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Darwin spread-F observed local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Hobart, Christchurch no data. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Extended periods of weak ionospheric support.

12 May   74      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 15% 07, 11-12UT.
      Depressed 30% 14-17UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night and after 
      local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin enhanced 15% 03-05UT. Depressed to 40% 11-17UT.
      Learmonth depressed to 40% 12-15UT. 
      Townsville no data after 02UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Norfolk Is. no data after 03UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with some periods of disturbance.

13 May   74      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed 35% 14-18UT. Enhanced to 25% 10-12UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% 21-23UT
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Darwin enhanced to 30% 05-10UT. Depressed 40% 12-16UT.
      Brisbane depressed to 30% 07-11UT.
      Townsville no data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Canberra, Sydney depressed 25% 08-10UT.
      Norfolk Is., Hobart no data. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      variable conditions with periods of disturbance.

14 May   68      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable conditions with extended periods of poor
         ionospheric support.

15 May   67      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

2. FORECAST (16 MAY - 22 MAY) 
MUFS: briefly depressed after local dawn on 21-23 May
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 21-23 May. Otherwise normal. No SWFs.

T index: 79

3. OUTLOOK (23 MAY - 22 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
 23 May, 5-8 Jun, 17-19 Jun.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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