[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (21 September 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (14 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
14 Sep   46      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Sep   60      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Sep   65      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Sep   80      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Sep   62      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Sep   69      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 23%
      06-08 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      09-12 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      at times.

20 Sep   81      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-11 and 23 UT. No
      data 12-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      enhancements to 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
      Depressions to 40% at Darwin 17-18 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      30% mostly Hobart, Perth and Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62
2. FORECAST (21 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: Near predicted monthly values. Possible depressions
      on 24 Sep.
Propagation conditions: Normal. SWFs possible.
T index:  62
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on
20 September and is current for interval 21 September
only (SWFs) . 
3. OUTLOOK (28 SEPTEMBER - 28 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
30 Sep-01 Oct, 07 Oct-10 Oct, 27 Oct-28 Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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