[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (19 October 11) issued 0252 UT on 19 Oct 2011

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/0200Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (12 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
12 Oct   99      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Oct   87      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Oct   92      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

15 Oct   97      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Oct  103      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Oct  107      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Oct  118      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63
2. FORECAST (19 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
SWFs possible.
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
20-21 Oct, 30 Oct.
T index:  85

3. OUTLOOK (26 OCTOBER - 25 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
16-18 Nov.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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