[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (23 March 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/0200Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (16 MARCH - 22 MARCH)
Date   T index   Conditions        
16 Mar   51      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Mar   50      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Mar   48      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Mar   56      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Mar   67      Normal            
MUFS:
near predicted monthly values

21 Mar   47      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

22 Mar   47      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      MUFs enahanced 20% during local evening.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40
2. FORECAST (23 MARCH - 29 MARCH) 
MUFS: MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values with 
enhanced MUFs ~20% for Equatorial and some Northern AUS 
regions. 

Propagation conditions: Mostly normal conditions expected 
with possible degraded conditions for 29Mar due to recurrent 
coronal hole activity. Chance of SWF's with an expected 
increase in solar activity for the forecast week.

T index:  40

3. OUTLOOK (30 MARCH - 29 APRIL)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
06Apr-08Apr, 26Apr.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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