[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (09 March 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/0200Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (02 MARCH - 08 MARCH)
Date   T index   Conditions        
02 Mar    4      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

03 Mar   40      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Variable conditions during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of MUF depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of MUF depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day periods of MUF depressions.

04 Mar   29      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% over the UT day.

05 Mar   34      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Mar   49      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced up to 30%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Mar   63      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced greater
      than 30% at times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Mar   73      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40
2. FORECAST (09 MARCH - 15 MARCH) 
MUFS: Possibly depressed after local dawn on 10 March.
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.
Propagation conditions: Fair-normal 10-March, otherwise normal.
SWfs probable early in week.
T index:  40
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 8 March
and is current for interval  8-9 March for SWFs. 
3. OUTLOOK (16 MARCH - 15 APRIL)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 27-30 March,
otherwise no signficant degraded periods expected.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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