[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (19 January 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/0200Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (12 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
12 Jan   10      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

13 Jan   17      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Jan    4      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

15 Jan    3      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

16 Jan    5      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Jan   -1      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      08-10, 12-21 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-01, 04-05 and 20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      07-21 UT at Darwin. No data for Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      02-07, 10-17 UT at Brisbane, 02-05, 10-15 UT at
      Canberra, 11-18 UT at Hobart, 01-09, 18-21 UT at
      Norfolk Is. and 10-15 UT at Sydney.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 35%
      14-17 UT at Macquarie Is., depressions to 20% 03-06,
      18 UT at Mawson.

18 Jan    3      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      11-13 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 15% with depressions to 50% 00-01 UT and
      depressions to 35% 02-06, 12-17 and 20-23 UT. Sporadic
      E observed 03-05 and spread F 14-16 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Darwin with
      depressions to 45% 14-21 UT. Sporadic E observed 21-22
      UT. No data for Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      02-06, 18-19 UT at Brisbane, 00-07 at Norfolk Is.,
      depressions to 25% 00-07, 12-19 UT at Canberra, 01-06,
      13-14 UT at Sydney and 00-08, 17-18 UT at Hobart.
      Occasional sporadic E and night spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      17-19 UT at Casey and to 20% 02-03, 12-13 UT at Mawson.
      No data for Macquarie Is. 04-21 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

2. FORECAST (19 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Propagation conditions: Fair to normal. No SWFs. Degradations may
occur at times due to sporadic E.
T index:  15
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 18 January
and is current for interval 19-21 January. 

3. OUTLOOK (26 JANUARY - 25 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:

Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
The current low MUFs are probably due to the low background solar
flux. Expect MUFs to be below predicted monthly values while
background flux remains low.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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