[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (24 August 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/0200Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (17 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
17 Aug   42      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 25% at times.

18 Aug   39      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

19 Aug   47      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

20 Aug   41      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

21 Aug   43      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

22 Aug   42      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

23 Aug   53      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59
2. FORECAST (24 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST) 

MUFS: MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values
for 24Aug-26Aug. Increased geomagnetic activity expected on
26Aug-28Aug due to coronal hole effects may result in
depressed MUFs ~20% for mid to high latitudes between 
27Aug-30Aug.

Propagation conditions: Normal conditons expected for mid to low
latitudes. Disturbed conditions expected for high latitudes
from 26Aug onwards due to increased geomagnetic activity. SWFs
possible due to the return of previous X-class producing region
1263 within this forecast period.

T index:  59

3. OUTLOOK (31 AUGUST - 30 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No signficant degraded periods expected. Weaker ionospheric
support possible between 03Sep-10Sep.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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