[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (10 August 11)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 10 13:41:16 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/0200Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (03 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST)
Date T index Conditions
03 Aug 38 Normal-fair
MUFS:
slightly below predicted monthly values
04 Aug 34 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
SWF's observed 04-05UT Townsville , Darwin, Learmonth.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
SWFs observed 04-05UT Norfolk Is., Brisbane, Sydney, Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
05 Aug 44 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Sporadic-E observed after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F observed local afternoon, Brisbane, Hobart, Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
06 Aug 55 Normal-fair
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn with periods of sporadic-E.
Niue Island Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
07 Aug 37 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day with
enhancements to 50% 11-13UT,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Absorption observed Hobart around local dawn.
Perth enhanced to 50% local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
08 Aug 39 Fair-normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
09 Aug 40 Normal-fair
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
2. FORECAST (10 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST)
MUFS: Possible depressions 10-11 Aug, 14-16 Aug. Near predicted monthly values
on other days.
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 10-11 Aug, 14-16 Aug.
T index: 45
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 9 August and is current
for interval 10-11 August. Possible depressions due to chance of CME passage.
3. OUTLOOK (17 AUGUST - 16 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
17 Aug, 27-28 Aug, 12-13 Sep.
PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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