[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (20 September 06)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (13 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Sep   25      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted montly values.

14 Sep   24      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted montly values.

15 Sep   25      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed up to 15% at times during local day,
      otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed up to 15% at times during local day,
      otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

16 Sep   32      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

17 Sep   34      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted montly values.

18 Sep   22      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Sep    4      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11
2. FORECAST (20 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values.
Possible depressions for 20Sep-21Sep as well as from 24Sep
onwards, with a potential increase in geomagnetic activity
from a coronal hole that is expected to move into geoeffective 
position around that time.

Propagation conditions: Normal. No SWFs expected while solar
activity remains at very low levels and there are few 
current active solar regions.

T index:   10

3. OUTLOOK (27 SEPTEMBER - 27 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
17-Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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