[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (20 July 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/0200Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (13 JULY - 19 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Jul   30      Normal            
MUFS:
slightly above predicted monthly values

14 Jul   24      Normal            
MUFS:
near predicted monthly values

15 Jul   24      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

16 Jul   33      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

17 Jul   39      Normal            
MUFS:
slightly above predicted monthly values

18 Jul   29      Normal            
MUFS:
near predicted monthly values

19 Jul   20      Normal            
MUFS:
slightly below predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27
2. FORECAST (20 JULY - 26 JULY) 
MUFS: briefly depressed after local dawn on 21 Jul
depressed 15% on 20 Jul
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.
Propagation conditions: Fair-Poor 20-Jul Fair 21-Jul , otherwise normal. No SWFs
T index:   30

A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole is beginning to 
take effect with the ACE spacecraft seeing rising speeds. 
This will likely cause a geomagnetic disturbance 20-21st July
which may slightly degrade HF propagation conditions.

3. OUTLOOK (27 JULY - 26 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
28-Jul,05-Aug to 06-Aug,08-Aug to 09-Aug,18-Aug,24-Aug to 25-Aug.


PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecast a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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