[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (19 January 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/0200Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (12 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
12 Jan   33      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

13 Jan   22      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Jan   47      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Jan   75      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Jan   68      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

17 Jan   40      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

18 Jan   46      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32
2. FORECAST (19 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY) 
MUFS: depressed 30% on 19-Jan, depressed 15 to 20% on 20-Jan,  
      otherwise MUFs near normal. 

Propagation conditions: Fair-Poor 19-Jan Fair 20-Jan , otherwise normal. 
                        Shortwave fadeouts possible, active solar region
			has reduced flaring rate.

T index: -10 on 19 and 20 Jan,  otherwise 45 on other days of week.

COMMENT: Strong depression in progress. 
         IPS HF Communications Warning 5 is current. 
3. OUTLOOK (26 JANUARY - 25 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
27-Jan to 01-Feb,03-Feb to 04-Feb,13-Feb to 14-Feb.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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