[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (28 July 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/0200Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (21 JULY - 27 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
21 Jul   66      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


22 Jul   64      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 75% over the UT day.


23 Jul   97      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


24 Jul   73      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


25 Jul   92      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 135% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


26 Jul    6      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


27 Jul   60      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 145% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39
2. FORECAST (28 JULY - 03 AUGUST) 
MUFS: Depressed by 5-15% after local dawn on 28-Jul, 29-Jul. 
After which MUFs expected near normal from 30-Jul to 03-Aug.
SWFs probable 28Jul.  

Propagation conditions: Fair-Poor 28-Jul to 29-Jul,
returning to normal 30-Jul to 030-Aug. SWFs probable 28-Jul.
T index:   35  

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on
26 July and is current for interval  26-28 July (SWFs) . 
3. OUTLOOK (04 AUGUST - 03 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
19-Aug to 24-Aug.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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