[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (14 January 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/0200Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (07 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Jan   78      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed.

08 Jan   27      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jan   85      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

10 Jan   19      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

11 Jan   42      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Jan   63      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Jan   42      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values local day.
      Depressed 15% local night hours.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values 
      over the UT day.

COMMENT:Depressed MUFs observed 8 and 10 Jan, due to both
weak solar mass ejection effects and coronal hole wind 
stream induced activity.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56
2. FORECAST (14 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY) 
MUFS: Depressed 10-15% southern Aus region 14 Jan. Depressed 15% after local dawn 
      on 17-18Jan southern Aus/NZ region.  otherwise near predicted montlhy values.
Propagation conditions: Fair late 16 to 18Jan, otherwise normal. Isolated SWFs possible.
T index:   30 for 17-18 Jan, otherwise 60.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 13 January and is current 
for interval  17-18 January. Coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
activity expected in this interval to moderately impact southern Aus/NZ region MUFs.
3. OUTLOOK (21 JANUARY - 20 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible (southern Aus/NZ region):
28-Jan to 07-Feb,12-Feb to 13-Feb.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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