[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (14 May 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/0200Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (07 MAY - 13 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 May   78      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

08 May   61      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

09 May   63      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near normal.
      Spread F observed.

10 May   63      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn this morning.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed. Spread F observed.

11 May   58      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 May   47      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

13 May   53      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs observed this week Southern
Aus/NZ region due to geomagnetic activity induced by coronal
hole high speed wind streams.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72
2. FORECAST (14 MAY - 20 MAY) 
MUFS: 15% depressed after local dawn southern aus/NZ region
      Northern region MUFs near normal.
Propagation conditions: Fair southern Aus/NZ region Normal Northern Aus region.
T index:   55 southern Aus region
	   80 northern aus region
COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs after local dawn and degraded HF conditions
local night expected for southern Aus/NZ region for most of week.
3. OUTLOOK (21 MAY - 20 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
21-May to 29-May,02-Jun to 12-Jun,16-Jun to 19-Jun.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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