[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (19 February 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/0200Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (12 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
12 Feb   95      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


13 Feb  109      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Briefly depressed after local dawn.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night/early morning.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods
      of disturbance. 


14 Feb  125      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods
      of disturbance.


15 Feb  135      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with 
      significant periods of disturbance. 


16 Feb   98      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with extended
      periods of disturbance.


17 Feb  108      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with isolated
      periods of disturbance.


18 Feb   96      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with regional depressions
      during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with extended
      periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88
2. FORECAST (19 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 19-Feb,  
      otherwise MUFs near normal. No SWFs.
Propagation conditions: Fair 19-Feb , otherwise normal. No SWFs
T index:  105

3. OUTLOOK (26 FEBRUARY - 28 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
28-Feb to 03-Mar, 12-Mar to 16-Mar, 18-Mar to 20-Mar.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060