[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (10 December 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/0200Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (03 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
03 Dec  111      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Increased absorption observed.
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

04 Dec   94      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

05 Dec  108      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Dec   60      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Degraded conditions second half of UT day.

07 Dec   46      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local danw.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed.

08 Dec   38      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.

09 Dec   32      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs observed from 06 Dec southern
	 Australian region. Depressed MUFs in association with
	 geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole 
	 high speed wind stream.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50
2. FORECAST (10 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15% first half of week southern Aus/NZ region. Northern 
      Aus region MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions: Fair until 15 Dec southern Aus/NZ region, Northern
      Aus region conditions mostly normal. Chance for isolated fadeouts
      later in week.
T index:   20  southern Aus region
           60  northern Aus region
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 95 was issued on 8 December and is 
	 current for interval  9-11 December (southern Aus/NZ). 
3. OUTLOOK (17 DECEMBER - 16 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
17-Dec to 18-Dec, 01-Jan to 11-Jan

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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