[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (11 December 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/0200Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (04 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Dec  130      Normal            
MUFS:
5 to 10% above predicted monthly values


05 Dec  122      Normal            
MUFS:
5 to 10% above predicted monthly values


06 Dec  130      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


07 Dec  114      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Isolated depressions of 10-20%.


08 Dec   88      Poor-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day, 
      with isolated localised depressions.


09 Dec  142      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, 
      locally enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


10 Dec  139      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90
2. FORECAST (11 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15 to 20% on 17-Dec,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible.
Propagation conditions: Fair 17-Dec , otherwise normal. SWFs possible.
T index:  110

3. OUTLOOK (18 DECEMBER - 17 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
24-Dec to 27-Dec, 02-Jan, 13-Jan to 16-Jan.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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