[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (31 Januray 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/0200Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (24 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
24 Jan  108      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption and spread F observed.

25 Jan  110      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Jan  131      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      depressed 15% after dawn at some sites.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.

27 Jan  118      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mildy depressed to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Jan  123      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      with MUFs mildly depressed local day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Jan  112      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30-50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Jan  114      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117
2. FORECAST (31 JANUARY - 06 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: Initially near normal, becoming depressed 15-20% late in UT
day on 31 Jan due to anticipated arrival of mass ejection from flare
on 28 Jan. MUFs initially depressed 01 Feb, then recovering to near normal.
Propagation conditions: Fair 31 Jan-01 Feb, mid to high latitudes, then good.
T index:  90 on 01 Feb, otherwise 125.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 29 January and is current for interval 31 January to 1 February. 
3. OUTLOOK (07 FEBRUARY - 09 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No signficant degraded periods expected after 01 Feb.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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