[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (12 December 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/0200Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (05 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
05 Dec  133      Normal            
MUFS:
near predicted monthly values

06 Dec  138      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

07 Dec  130      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Dec  120      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

09 Dec  130      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Dec  166      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

11 Dec  149      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109
2. FORECAST (12 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 15-Dec,  otherwise MUFs 
near to 15% above normal. 
Propagation conditions: Fair 14-16Dec, otherwise normal. SWFs probable 
early in week.
T index:  140
COMMENT: A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced 14
to 15 Dec due to a recent flare/CME and recurrent factors. Two solar
regions have good flare potential. IPS HF Communications Warning 80 
was issued on 11 December and is current for interval 12-14 December(SWFs). 
3. OUTLOOK (19 DECEMBER - 18 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
21-Dec to 22-Dec,10-Jan to 11-Jan,17-Jan.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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