[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (08 November 00)

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/0200Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (01 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
01 Nov  152      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

02 Nov  175      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20 to 30% 4UT to 14UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Nov  177      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

04 Nov  156      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

05 Nov  155      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Absorption observed 3 to 13 UT.

06 Nov  126      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
      Spread F observed southern region sites.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Absorption and Spread F observed.

07 Nov   55      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.

COMMENT: Very depressed MUFs observed 07 Nov. Depression followed
minor major storm due to earlier coronal mass ejection.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133
2. FORECAST (08 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed at times 10-12 Nov, then mostly near normal
Propagation conditions: Fair 09-12 Nov, otherwise normal. No SWfs
T index:  130

COMMENT: a coronal hole induced disturbance is expected
during interval 10-12 Nov.

3. OUTLOOK (15 NOVEMBER - 15 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
18-20 Nov
23-27 Nov
03-07 Dec

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.


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