[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (30 October 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (21 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 21 Oct   3343 5444   25     
 22 Oct   3344 4433   21     
 23 Oct   4232 1112    9    
 24 Oct   2233 4756   42    A moderate (74nT) impulse was observed 
 in the IPS magnetomter data at 1525UT on 24 Oct.
 25 Oct   5333 5413   23    
 26 Oct   1223 2243   11    A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in 
 the IPS magnetomter data at 1909UT on 26 Oct.
 27 Oct   2332 1313   10    
 28 Oct   3334 2334   17    
 29 Oct   4687 8787  155    A strong (139nT) impulse was observed 
 in the IPS magnetomter data at 0611UT on 29 Oct.

*estimated from real time data

The period started with geomagnetic activity at Unsettled 
to Minor Storm levels on 21 October due to a coronal hole 
effect. The geomagnetic activity then gradually decreased 
during the next 2 days and it was at Quiet to Active level 
on 23 October. The geomagnetic activity rose from Quiet to 
Severe storm level on 24 October due to the effect of a CME.
The activity then gradually decreased during the next four 
days and it went down to Quiet to Active levels on 28 October. 
The activity again rose to Active to Severe storm level on 
29 October due to the arrival of a spectacular full halo CME 
associated with the X17 flare that was observed on 28 October. 

2. FORECAST (30 OCTOBER - 29 NOVEMBER)
Disturbed Periods: 30 to 31 Oct, 1 Nov, 3 Nov, 9 to 18 Nov, 
		20 Nov, 26 Nov

Best Quiet Periods: 4 to 8 Nov, 19 Nov, 22 Nov, 27 to 29 Nov.


PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.