[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (06 November 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 06 NOVEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (28 OCTOBER - 05 NOVEMBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 28 Oct   3334 2334   17     
 29 Oct   4687 8787  155    A strong (139nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
                            magnetomter data at 0611UT on 29 Oct. 
 30 Oct   6653 5677   78    
 31 Oct   8876 6436  112    
 01 Nov   4433 3333   18    
 02 Nov   3323 3343   15    
 03 Nov   3322 2223   10    
 04 Nov   3466 3233   31    A moderate (87nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
                            magnetomter data at 0626UT on 04 Nov.
 05 Nov   2111 1133    6    

*estimated from real time data

Extremely disturbed conditions observed this week due to
frequent fast strong mass ejections. The region(s) of origin of
these mass ejections have rotated around the westlimb of
the Sun and may return to the east limb of the Sun
13 to 18 Nov. The most flare productive region is
due back on 18 Nov.

2. FORECAST (06 NOVEMBER - 06 DECEMBER)
Disturbed Periods: 
   06 Nov: Chance active to minor storm due to possible glancing 
	   blow from farewell mass ejection from active solar region

10-18 Nov: Active conditions with isolated minor storm
	   periods due to coronal hole wind stream.

Best Quiet Periods: 
06-09 Nov
20-28 Nov   Recurrence suggests these days should be relatively quiet.
	    However, if recently active regions survive backside
	    solar transit then coronal mass ejection activity
	    may change 27 day outlook.

PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

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