From aswfc at bom.gov.au Tue Oct 1 20:21:45 2024 From: aswfc at bom.gov.au (Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre) Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2024 10:21:45 +0000 Subject: [Ips-ssn-predictions] BOM SWS Observed and Predicted Solar Indices [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED] Message-ID: <66fbcd39.CsdJRCQkCOpa7+d7%aswfc@bom.gov.au> OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES Prepared by Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre Issued on 01 October 2024 -------------------------- SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER -------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2006 33.0 29.7 27.4 27.0 27.4 26.2 25.0 25.9 26.0 23.7 21.1 20.2 2007 19.8 19.0 17.7 16.4 14.4 12.8 11.6 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.2 7.9 2008 6.6 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2009 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 5.5 7.4 9.5 10.9 11.7 12.7 2010 14.0 16.1 18.5 20.8 23.1 24.6 25.2 26.4 29.5 34.5 39.1 42.5 2011 45.7 48.8 53.8 61.1 69.3 77.2 83.6 86.3 86.6 87.4 89.4 92.5 2012 95.5 98.2 98.3 95.1 90.9 86.6 84.5 85.1 85.3 85.8 87.7 88.1 2013 86.8 86.1 84.4 84.3 87.0 90.9 94.6 99.0 104.7 107.0 106.9 107.6 2014 109.3 110.5 114.3 116.4 115.0 114.1 112.6 108.3 101.9 97.3 94.7 92.2 2015 89.3 86.1 82.2 78.9 76.1 72.1 68.3 66.4 65.9 64.3 61.2 57.8 2016 54.4 52.5 50.4 47.8 44.8 41.5 38.5 36.0 33.2 31.5 29.9 28.5 2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.6 18.3 16.7 15.4 15.0 2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.0 2019 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.8 2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.9 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.9 13.6 15.3 2021 17.2 19.0 21.7 24.8 25.8 27.6 31.4 35.4 40.2 45.2 50.8 55.9 2022 60.1 64.7 68.7 73.0 77.4 81.1 86.7 92.6 96.5 99.0 101.2 106.7 2023 113.3 117.8 121.1 122.9 124.2 125.3 124.6 124.3 124.0 124.8 127.8 129.4 2024 131.1 136.8 141.3 142.9e145.0e146.5e147.0e147.1e147.9e148.0e145.2e141.3e 2025 136.3e129.1e124.0e120.7 120.9 121.1 120.3 118.4 115.7 113.2 111.8 111.2 2026 109.9 108.2 106.8 104.9 101.7 97.9 94.2 91.0 88.4 86.2 83.2 78.8 2027 74.8 71.9 69.2 66.7 64.7 62.0 59.1 57.4 55.9 53.9 52.3 52.0 2028 51.5 49.9 47.7 45.5 43.6 42.1 40.3 38.2 36.7 35.6 34.0 31.7 2029 29.7 28.2 27.3 26.6 25.8 25.0 24.3 23.7 22.8 22.0 21.2 20.5 2030 19.6 18.5 17.2 16.0 15.4 14.7 14.1 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.4 12.0 ============================================================================= --------------------- SMOOTHED 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2006 86.1 84.2 82.1 80.7 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.7 80.6 79.7 78.7 78.3 2007 78.0 77.4 76.5 75.7 74.8 73.6 72.7 72.0 71.8 71.7 71.4 70.8 2008 70.2 69.8 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.3 68.7 68.5 68.3 68.1 68.2 68.4 2009 68.6 68.8 68.9 69.2 69.6 70.1 70.9 72.0 73.2 74.0 74.4 74.7 2010 75.4 76.4 77.3 78.1 78.9 79.5 79.9 80.4 82.5 85.8 88.3 90.2 2011 91.9 93.5 96.7 101.3 106.5 111.7 116.1 118.7 118.8 118.5 119.6 121.8 2012 124.7 127.2 127.3 126.2 124.3 121.6 119.9 119.5 119.2 119.5 120.5 120.5 2013 119.1 118.1 117.2 116.7 118.3 121.0 124.1 128.2 132.5 134.9 135.6 136.1 2014 137.5 138.9 141.1 143.9 145.1 145.8 145.4 142.9 140.3 138.7 137.6 137.4 2015 136.4 134.3 131.6 127.6 123.6 119.9 116.4 113.9 111.4 108.4 105.8 102.7 2016 99.8 98.0 96.5 95.1 93.1 90.4 87.8 85.7 83.9 82.7 81.3 80.2 2017 79.5 78.8 78.8 78.8 78.1 77.7 77.3 76.8 76.3 75.6 75.0 74.8 2018 74.3 73.6 72.1 70.6 70.2 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.1 70.3 70.5 70.3 2019 70.0 69.8 69.7 69.6 69.6 69.7 69.7 69.8 69.7 69.5 69.3 69.3 2020 69.5 69.8 70.1 70.5 71.6 73.0 73.8 74.1 74.5 75.0 75.5 76.2 2021 77.1 77.9 78.9 80.2 80.7 81.2 83.0 85.5 88.5 92.4 97.2 101.3 2022 104.7 108.4 112.1 115.9 119.2 122.4 127.3 133.0 137.4 139.8 141.4 144.3 2023 148.6 152.3 154.7 156.0 157.6 159.1 158.5 157.8 157.8 158.4 160.4 162.8 2024 164.7 169.5 175.1 177.4e177.8e177.8e177.3e175.7e174.0e172.3e168.8e164.0e 2025 158.6e150.5e142.6e136.5 134.9 133.9 132.2 131.1 130.6 129.7 128.6 127.4 2026 126.6 125.6 123.9 122.0 120.1 118.0 115.9 113.8 111.6 109.2 106.7 104.2 2027 102.2 100.4 98.1 96.1 94.3 92.5 90.9 89.8 89.0 88.2 87.6 87.0 2028 85.8 84.7 84.3 84.2 84.1 83.8 83.3 82.5 81.5 80.5 79.5 78.6 2029 78.1 77.9 77.1 76.3 75.8 75.5 75.2 75.0 74.9 74.8 74.6 74.3 2030 73.9 73.2 72.5 72.1 71.7 71.5 ============================================================================= The values in the smoothed sunspot number table are based on the observed (definitive and provisional) monthly mean sunspot numbers from WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels (sidc.oma.be/silso/home). In June 2015, WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, adjusted their original observed sunspot numbers (Version 1.0) to a Version 2.0 series in which the sunspot numbers are higher. In the Version 1.0 data series, some of the sunspot numbers were weighted. The new (Version 2.0) sunspot numbers are unweighted sunspot number counts. The Bureau of Meteorology ASWFC solar cycle prediction is now based on the Version 2.0 values. The values in the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux table are derived from daily 10.7 cm solar flux values adjusted to 1 Astronomical Unit (A.U.). The daily values are averaged to provide monthly mean values which are then smoothed. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data are provided as a service by the National Research Council of Canada. In both tables, the observed monthly mean values are smoothed using a 13- month running filter (the values for the 1st and 13th months have half the weighting). Estimated values have an "e" suffix and are calculated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed numbers. Observed smoothed values precede the estimated values while predicted smoothed values follow the estimated values. If no estimated values are shown, all values are observed smoothed values and no prediction is shown. =============================================================================