[Ips-ssn-predictions] BOM SWS Observed and Predicted Solar Indices [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 4 09:24:52 EST 2018
OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES
Prepared by Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Services
Issued on 03 June 2018
-------------------------- SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 166.1 170.6 174.3 175.2 172.9 172.7 174.2 172.8 168.8 165.3 163.1 162.7
2001 158.3 152.5 155.1 160.7 163.7 167.4 172.0 175.8 177.1 177.3 180.3 179.1
2002 177.6 179.7 178.2 174.4 171.3 166.9 161.5 155.4 149.5 143.9 136.0 131.4
2003 129.6 125.7 118.7 111.9 107.0 101.7 96.0 92.9 91.8 89.1 86.9 84.1
2004 80.1 76.4 73.2 71.0 69.5 67.1 64.8 63.0 60.2 57.9 56.6 55.7
2005 54.5 53.2 52.3 49.3 45.0 44.5 44.6 41.9 39.4 38.9 38.4 36.0
2006 33.0 29.7 27.4 27.0 27.4 26.2 25.0 25.9 26.0 23.7 21.1 20.2
2007 19.8 19.0 17.7 16.4 14.4 12.8 11.6 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.2 7.9
2008 6.6 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.2 2.4 2.3 2.2
2009 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 5.5 7.4 9.5 10.9 11.7 12.7
2010 14.0 16.1 18.5 20.8 23.1 24.6 25.2 26.4 29.5 34.5 39.1 42.5
2011 45.7 48.8 53.8 61.1 69.3 77.2 83.6 86.3 86.6 87.4 89.4 92.5
2012 95.5 98.2 98.3 95.1 90.9 86.6 84.5 85.1 85.3 85.8 87.7 88.1
2013 86.8 86.1 84.4 84.3 87.0 90.9 94.6 99.0 104.7 107.0 106.9 107.6
2014 109.3 110.5 114.3 116.4 115.0 114.1 112.6 108.3 101.9 97.3 94.7 92.2
2015 89.3 86.1 82.2 78.9 76.1 72.1 68.3 66.4 65.9 64.3 61.2 57.8
2016 54.4 52.5 50.4 47.8 44.8 41.5 38.5 36.0 33.2 31.5 29.9 28.5
2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.5 18.2 16.6 15.4 14.8e
2018 13.9e 12.5e 9.9e 8.1e 7.8e 7.6e 7.4e 7.0e 6.8e 6.6e 5.9e 4.5
2019 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6
=============================================================================
--------------------- SMOOTHED 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 176.3 177.8 179.5 181.6 181.2 180.9 181.4 180.7 178.4 177.5 175.9 173.8
2001 170.4 167.3 169.6 173.5 176.7 180.8 185.9 190.7 193.2 193.2 194.5 194.8
2002 195.7 198.3 196.6 192.4 188.8 183.6 176.8 170.2 164.9 160.0 154.8 151.7
2003 148.9 144.1 138.8 135.7 134.4 131.8 128.9 127.0 125.5 123.8 121.9 119.4
2004 117.5 116.6 115.8 113.3 109.9 107.7 106.5 105.6 104.3 102.8 102.2 102.2
2005 101.2 99.8 99.6 98.6 96.2 94.8 93.8 92.2 90.8 90.3 89.5 87.9
2006 86.1 84.2 82.1 80.7 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.7 80.6 79.7 78.7 78.3
2007 78.0 77.4 76.5 75.7 74.8 73.6 72.7 72.0 71.8 71.7 71.4 70.8
2008 70.2 69.8 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.3 68.7 68.5 68.3 68.1 68.2 68.4
2009 68.6 68.8 68.9 69.2 69.6 70.1 70.9 72.0 73.2 74.0 74.4 74.7
2010 75.4 76.4 77.3 78.1 78.9 79.5 79.9 80.4 82.5 85.8 88.3 90.2
2011 91.9 93.5 96.7 101.3 106.5 111.7 116.1 118.7 118.8 118.5 119.6 121.8
2012 124.7 127.2 127.3 126.2 124.3 121.6 119.9 119.5 119.2 119.5 120.5 120.5
2013 119.1 118.1 117.2 116.7 118.3 121.0 124.1 128.2 132.5 134.9 135.6 136.1
2014 137.5 138.9 141.1 143.9 145.1 145.8 145.4 142.9 140.3 138.7 137.6 137.4
2015 136.4 134.3 131.6 127.6 123.6 119.9 116.4 113.9 111.4 108.4 105.8 102.7
2016 99.8 98.0 96.5 95.1 93.1 90.4 87.8 85.7 83.9 82.7 81.3 80.2
2017 79.5 78.8 78.8 78.8 78.1 77.7 77.3 76.8 76.3 75.6 75.0 74.6e
2018 74.0e 73.2e 71.7e 70.4e 70.1e 70.1e 70.2e 70.2e 70.2e 70.2e 69.9e 69.7
2019 69.3 69.0 68.7 68.5 68.2 68.0 68.1 68.1 68.2 68.3 68.4 68.6
=============================================================================
The values in the smoothed sunspot number table are based on the observed
(definitive and provisional) monthly mean sunspot numbers from WDC-SILSO,
Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels (sidc.oma.be/silso/home).
In June 2015, WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, adjusted
their original observed sunspot numbers (Version 1.0) to a Version 2.0
series in which the sunspot numbers are higher. In the Version 1.0 data
series, some of the sunspot numbers were weighted. The new (Version 2.0)
sunspot numbers are unweighted sunspot number counts. The Bureau of
Meteorology SWS solar cycle prediction is now based on the Version 2.0
values.
The values in the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux table are derived from daily
10.7 cm solar flux values adjusted to 1 Astronomical Unit (A.U.). The daily
values are averaged to provide monthly mean values which are then smoothed.
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data are provided as a service by the National
Research Council of Canada.
In both tables, the observed monthly mean values are smoothed using a 13-
month running filter (the values for the 1st and 13th months have half the
weighting). Estimated values have an "e" suffix and are calculated from
observed monthly and predicted smoothed numbers. Observed smoothed values
precede the estimated values while predicted smoothed values follow the
estimated values. If no estimated values are shown, all values are observed
smoothed values and no prediction is shown.
=============================================================================
More information about the ips-ssn-predictions
mailing list