[Ips-ssn-predictions] BOM SWS Observed and Predicted Solar Indices [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 2 01:03:33 EST 2017
OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES
Prepared by Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Services
Issued on 01 March 2017
-------------------------- SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 166.1 170.6 174.3 175.2 172.9 172.7 174.2 172.8 168.8 165.3 163.1 162.7
2001 158.3 152.5 155.1 160.7 163.7 167.4 172.0 175.8 177.1 177.3 180.3 179.1
2002 177.6 179.7 178.2 174.4 171.3 166.9 161.5 155.4 149.5 143.9 136.0 131.4
2003 129.6 125.7 118.7 111.9 107.0 101.7 96.0 92.9 91.8 89.1 86.9 84.1
2004 80.1 76.4 73.2 71.0 69.5 67.1 64.8 63.0 60.2 57.9 56.6 55.7
2005 54.5 53.2 52.3 49.3 45.0 44.5 44.6 41.9 39.4 38.9 38.4 36.0
2006 33.0 29.7 27.4 27.0 27.4 26.2 25.0 25.9 26.0 23.7 21.1 20.2
2007 19.8 19.0 17.7 16.4 14.4 12.8 11.6 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.2 7.9
2008 6.6 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.2 2.4 2.3 2.2
2009 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 5.5 7.4 9.5 10.9 11.7 12.7
2010 14.0 16.1 18.5 20.8 23.1 24.6 25.2 26.4 29.5 34.5 39.1 42.5
2011 45.7 48.8 53.8 61.1 69.3 77.2 83.6 86.3 86.6 87.4 89.4 92.5
2012 95.5 98.2 98.3 95.1 90.9 86.6 84.5 85.1 85.3 85.8 87.7 88.1
2013 86.8 86.1 84.4 84.3 87.0 90.9 94.6 99.0 104.7 107.0 106.9 107.6
2014 109.3 110.5 114.3 116.4 115.0 114.1 112.6 108.3 101.9 97.3 94.7 92.2
2015 89.3 86.1 82.2 78.9 76.1 72.1 68.3 66.4 65.9 64.3 61.2 57.8
2016 54.4 52.5 50.4 47.8 44.8 41.5 38.6 36.0 33.9e 32.7e 31.5e 31.0e
2017 31.2e 30.1e 28.4e 27.3e 27.1e 27.4e 27.5e 27.3e 26.4 25.7 24.9 24.0
2018 23.3 22.4 21.6 21.0 20.4 19.5 18.8 18.0 16.8 15.9 15.3 15.1
=============================================================================
-------------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 214.9 219.0 222.3 223.1 221.0 220.9 222.2 220.9 217.3 214.1 212.1 211.7
2001 207.6 202.0 204.5 209.8 212.6 216.1 220.2 223.6 224.7 224.9 227.5 226.5
2002 225.2 227.0 225.7 222.4 219.6 215.6 210.6 204.8 199.1 193.6 185.6 181.0
2003 179.2 175.2 168.0 161.1 156.0 150.6 144.8 141.7 140.6 137.9 135.7 133.0
2004 129.0 125.4 122.4 120.3 118.9 116.6 114.5 112.8 110.3 108.2 107.1 106.3
2005 105.2 104.1 103.3 100.7 97.1 96.7 96.8 94.6 92.6 92.2 91.8 90.0
2006 87.7 85.2 83.6 83.3 83.6 82.7 81.9 82.5 82.6 81.0 79.2 78.6
2007 78.4 77.8 77.0 76.2 74.9 74.0 73.3 72.3 72.1 72.3 71.9 71.1
2008 70.4 69.9 69.6 69.6 69.7 69.4 69.0 68.9 68.6 68.2 68.1 68.1
2009 68.2 68.3 68.5 68.7 68.8 69.1 69.8 70.9 72.0 72.8 73.3 73.9
2010 74.7 76.0 77.5 79.0 80.6 81.6 82.0 82.9 85.1 88.8 92.4 95.1
2011 97.7 100.3 104.6 111.1 118.7 126.2 132.5 135.1 135.4 136.2 138.2 141.3
2012 144.3 147.1 147.2 143.9 139.7 135.4 133.4 133.9 134.1 134.6 136.5 136.9
2013 135.6 134.9 133.3 133.2 135.8 139.7 143.4 147.9 153.7 156.0 155.9 156.7
2014 158.4 159.6 163.5 165.7 164.2 163.3 161.8 157.4 150.8 146.2 143.5 141.0
2015 138.1 134.9 131.1 127.9 125.2 121.3 117.7 116.0 115.5 114.0 111.2 108.1
2016 105.1 103.5 101.7 99.5 97.0 94.3 92.0 90.0 88.4e 87.4e 86.6e 86.2e
2017 86.3e 85.5e 84.3e 83.5e 83.4e 83.6e 83.6e 83.5e 82.9 82.4 81.8 81.2
2018 80.7 80.1 79.6 79.2 78.8 78.2 77.7 77.2 76.4 75.9 75.5 75.4
=============================================================================
These tables are based on the observed (definitive and provisional) monthly
mean sunspot numbers from WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels
(sidc.oma.be/silso/home). The observed values are smoothed using a 13 month
running filter (the first and last values have half weighting). Estimated
values have an "e" suffix and are calculated from observed monthly and
predicted smoothed sunspot numbers. Observed smoothed values precede the
estimated values while predicted smoothed values follow the estimated values.
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are
therefore described as "equivalent" solar radio flux values.
SPECIAL NOTE
In June 2015, WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, adjusted
their original observed sunspot numbers (Version 1.0) to a Version 2.0 series
in which the sunspot numbers are higher. In the Version 1.0 data series, some
of the sunspot numbers were weighted. The new (Version 2.0) sunspot numbers
are unweighted sunspot number counts (for more information see:
www.sidc.be/silso/home). The Bureau of Meteorology SWS solar cycle prediction
is now based on the Version 2.0 values. As a result of the WDC-SILSO
recalibration, the observed monthly sunspot numbers are higher. This is also
reflected in the tables of smoothed sunspot numbers and equivalent 10.7 cm
solar flux and the solar cycle graph.
=============================================================================
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