[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 22 14:47:59 EST 2009
IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24
IPS has made a significant change to its forecast for solar cycle 24.
The forecast cycle maximum smoothed sunspot number has been dropped from 134
to approximately 90. In addition the time of maximum has been shifted away
by one year to September/October 2013. These changes were made due to the
protracted solar minimum currently being experienced, and the apparent
statistical relationship between long solar minimums and lower following
solar cycles maxima.
Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services
Issued on Jul 22 2009
------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1
2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0
2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2
2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.0
2006 20.8 18.7 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.4 15.3 15.6 15.6 14.2 12.7 12.1
2007 12.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.0
2008 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7
2009 1.8e 2.0e 2.2e 2.3e 2.2e 2.3e 2.4e 2.5e 2.7e 2.9e 3.0e 3.2e
2010 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.4 4.0 4.8 5.7 6.8 7.4 9.1 10.3 11.7
2011 13.5 15.1 16.9 19.8 23.1 26.7 29.6 32.7 36.0 39.8 43.2 46.1
2012 48.8 52.9 57.3 61.2 63.4 65.7 67.9 70.5 73.1 75.4 78.1 80.5
2013 82.0 84.0 85.2 85.7 86.6 87.7 88.3 89.7 90.2 90.2 89.7 88.3
2014 88.0 87.1 87.1 86.8 86.8 87.1 87.1 86.6 86.6 85.7 83.8 81.7
2015 79.9 78.1 76.0 73.7 72.2 70.8 69.7 68.5 67.1 65.3 63.2 59.8
2016 56.4 53.2 51.1 49.2 47.5 45.9 44.2 42.3 40.3 38.7 37.5 37.0
2017 36.4 35.6 34.4 32.9 31.1 29.2 27.7 26.4 25.1 23.7 22.1 20.7
2018 19.6 18.7 17.8 17.0 16.0 15.3 14.6 14.1 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.2
2019 11.6 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5
============================================================================
----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2
2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9
2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0
2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6
2004 103.2 100.8 98.9 97.6 96.2 94.4 93.3 92.5 91.2 89.9 89.5 89.4
2005 88.9 88.4 88.1 86.7 84.7 84.6 84.8 83.6 82.5 82.3 81.9 80.5
2006 79.0 77.6 76.8 76.7 76.8 76.2 75.5 75.7 75.7 74.8 73.9 73.6
2007 73.5 73.3 72.8 72.3 71.6 71.0 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 69.9 69.5
2008 69.1 68.8 68.6 68.7 68.7 68.6 68.4 68.3 68.1 67.9 67.9 67.8
2009 67.9e 68.0e 68.1e 68.1e 68.1e 68.1e 68.2e 68.3e 68.4e 68.5e 68.5e 68.6e
2010 68.7 68.5 68.5 68.7 69.0 69.4 69.9 70.5 70.9 71.8 72.5 73.3
2011 74.4 75.4 76.5 78.4 80.6 83.1 85.2 87.4 90.0 92.9 95.7 98.1
2012 100.3 103.8 107.7 111.2 113.2 115.3 117.4 119.8 122.3 124.5 127.1 129.4
2013 130.9 132.9 134.0 134.5 135.4 136.5 137.1 138.5 139.0 139.0 138.5 137.1
2014 136.8 135.9 135.9 135.6 135.6 135.9 135.9 135.4 135.4 134.5 132.7 130.6
2015 128.8 127.1 125.1 122.9 121.4 120.1 119.1 117.9 116.6 115.0 113.0 109.9
2016 106.9 104.1 102.3 100.7 99.2 97.9 96.5 94.9 93.3 92.1 91.1 90.7
2017 90.3 89.6 88.7 87.6 86.3 84.9 83.8 82.9 82.0 81.0 79.9 79.0
2018 78.2 77.7 77.1 76.6 75.9 75.5 75.1 74.8 74.6 74.3 74.0 73.6
2019 73.3 73.1 73.0 72.7 72.3 72.0 72.0 72.1 72.1 72.0 72.0 72.0
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be). Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting)
and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24.
Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc at ips.gov.au
PLEASE NOTE: The technique used to make these predictions was changed
for the predictions issued from early November 2003. The revised technique
is more appropriate to the situation of a declining solar cycle
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