[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 1 21:35:14 EST 2006
ISES OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES
Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services
Issued on May 01 2006
------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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1995 24.2 23.0 22.1 20.6 19.2 18.2 17.0 15.4 13.4 12.1 11.3 10.8
1996 10.4 10.1 9.7 8.4 8.0 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.8 9.8 10.4
1997 10.5 11.0 13.5 16.5 18.3 20.3 22.6 25.0 28.3 31.8 35.0 39.0
1998 43.7 48.9 53.4 56.5 59.4 62.5 65.5 67.8 69.5 70.5 73.0 77.9
1999 82.6 84.6 83.8 85.5 90.5 93.1 94.3 97.5 102.3 107.8 111.0 111.1
2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1
2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0
2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2
2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 24.7e 22.4e
( 1) ( 2)
2006 20.2e 18.2e 16.8e 16.5e 16.3e 14.7e 13.1e 13.0e 13.1e 12.1e 10.2 9.5
( 4) ( 6) ( 7) ( 9) (10) (11) (13) (14) (16) (17)
2007 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.1 9.3 10.0 10.8 12.1 13.3 14.5
2008 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.3 20.3 22.6 25.0 28.3 31.8 35.0 39.0
2009 43.7 48.9 53.4 56.5 59.4 62.5 65.5 67.8 69.5 70.5 73.0 77.9
============================================================================
----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995 81.3 80.5 79.9 78.9 78.0 77.3 76.6 75.6 74.3 73.6 73.1 72.8
1996 72.6 72.4 72.2 71.4 71.2 71.5 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.6 72.2 72.6
1997 72.6 72.9 74.4 76.2 77.4 78.7 80.2 81.9 84.2 86.8 89.2 92.3
1998 96.1 100.4 104.3 107.0 109.6 112.4 115.1 117.3 118.9 119.8 122.2 126.9
1999 131.5 133.4 132.7 134.3 139.3 141.9 143.1 146.4 151.2 156.9 160.1 160.2
2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.3
2001 157.8 153.0 153.8 156.5 157.7 158.9 160.9 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.7 163.8
2002 162.7 163.8 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0
2003 129.9 127.6 123.3 119.7 117.4 115.0 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.7
2004 103.1 100.8 99.0 97.6 96.2 94.4 93.2 92.5 91.2 89.9 89.5 89.3
2005 88.9 88.4 88.1 86.7 84.6 84.6 84.8 83.6 82.5 82.3 81.7e 80.1e
( 1) ( 1)
2006 78.6e 77.3e 76.4e 76.2e 76.1e 75.1e 74.2e 74.1e 74.2e 73.6e 72.4 72.0
( 3) ( 4) ( 4) ( 6) ( 6) ( 7) ( 8) ( 8) (10) (10)
2007 71.9 71.7 71.5 71.5 71.8 71.8 71.9 72.3 72.8 73.6 74.3 75.0
2008 74.7 75.3 75.9 76.6 77.4 78.7 80.2 81.9 84.2 86.8 89.2 92.3
2009 96.1 100.4 104.3 107.0 109.6 112.4 115.1 117.3 118.9 119.8 122.2 126.9
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be). Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter and, where needed,
combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 23/24. Values
which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
An estimate is made of the tolerance for the prediction for those values
marked 'e' and this is given in brackets below these values.
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc at ips.gov.au
PLEASE NOTE: The technique used to make these predictions was changed
for the predictions issued from early November 2003. The revised technique
is more appropriate to the situation of a declining solar cycle
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