[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 2 10:11:15 EST 2000
ISES OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES
Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services
Predictions Based on Cycle 23 Peak Sunspot Number of 140
Issued on Nov 02 2000
------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995 24.2 23.0 22.1 20.6 19.2 18.2 17.0 15.4 13.4 12.1 11.3 10.8
1996 10.4 10.1 9.7 8.4 8.0 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.8 9.8 10.4
1997 10.5 11.0 13.5 16.5 18.3 20.3 22.6 25.0 28.3 31.8 35.0 39.0
1998 43.7 48.9 53.4 56.5 59.4 62.5 65.5 67.8 69.5 70.5 73.0 77.9
1999 82.6 84.6 83.8 85.4 90.4 93.0 94.4 97.5 102.3 107.7 110.9 111.0
2000 112.8 116.6 119.8 120.7 120.3e122.9e127.2e130.4e131.5e132.1e133.3e134.5e
( 1) ( 2) ( 4) ( 5) ( 7) ( 9) (10) (12)
2001 133.5e132.2e133.2e135.4e137.3 136.2 134.9 133.4 131.7 129.9 128.0 125.9
(14) (15) (17) (18) (19) (19) (19) (19) (18) (18) (18) (17)
2002 123.7 121.4 118.9 116.4 113.8 111.1 108.3 105.5 102.6 99.6 96.7 93.7
(17) (17) (16) (16) (16) (15) (15) (15) (14) (14) (13) (13)
2003 90.6 87.6 84.6 81.6 78.6 75.6 72.6 69.7 66.8 63.9 61.1 58.4
(12) (12) (12) (11) (11) (10) (10) ( 9) ( 9) ( 9) ( 8) ( 8)
2004 55.7 53.1 50.5 48.0 45.6 43.2 40.9 38.7 36.6 34.6 32.6 30.7
( 7) ( 7) ( 7) ( 6) ( 6) ( 6) ( 5) ( 5) ( 5) ( 4) ( 4) ( 4)
2005 28.9 27.1 25.4 23.8 22.3 20.9 19.5 18.2 17.0 15.8 14.7 13.6
( 4) ( 3) ( 3) ( 3) ( 3) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 1)
2006 12.6 11.7 10.8 10.0 9.3 8.5 7.9 7.2 6.7 6.1 5.6 5.1
( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1)
2007 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.1 8.2 9.5 11.2 13.3 15.6 18.3 21.3
( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 2) ( 2) ( 3)
2008 25.0 29.0 33.2 37.6 42.1 46.8 51.6 56.4 61.3 66.1 71.0 75.8
( 3) ( 4) ( 4) ( 5) ( 6) ( 6) ( 7) ( 8) ( 8) ( 9) (10) (10)
2009 80.6 85.2 89.8 94.2 98.5 102.6 106.5 110.3 113.8 117.2 120.3 123.2
(11) (12) (12) (13) (14) (14) (15) (15) (16) (16) (17) (17)
============================================================================
----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995 81.3 80.5 79.9 78.9 78.0 77.3 76.6 75.6 74.3 73.6 73.1 72.8
1996 72.6 72.4 72.2 71.4 71.2 71.5 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.6 72.2 72.6
1997 72.6 72.9 74.4 76.2 77.4 78.7 80.2 81.9 84.2 86.8 89.2 92.3
1998 96.1 100.4 104.3 107.0 109.6 112.4 115.1 117.3 118.9 119.8 122.2 126.9
1999 131.5 133.4 132.7 134.2 139.2 141.8 143.2 146.4 151.2 156.8 160.0 160.1
2000 162.0 165.9 169.2 170.1 169.7e172.3e176.7e180.0e181.1e181.7e182.9e184.1e
( 1) ( 2) ( 4) ( 5) ( 7) ( 9) (10) (12)
2001 183.1e181.8e182.8e185.0e187.0 185.9 184.5 183.0 181.3 179.5 177.5 175.4
(14) (15) (17) (18) (19) (19) (19) (19) (18) (18) (18) (17)
2002 173.1 170.8 168.2 165.7 163.0 160.2 157.4 154.5 151.5 148.5 145.6 142.5
(17) (17) (16) (16) (16) (15) (15) (15) (14) (14) (13) (13)
2003 139.4 136.4 133.4 130.5 127.6 124.7 121.8 119.1 116.3 113.7 111.1 108.7
(12) (12) (12) (11) (11) (10) (10) ( 8) ( 8) ( 8) ( 7) ( 7)
2004 106.3 104.0 101.8 99.6 97.6 95.7 93.8 92.1 90.4 88.9 87.4 86.0
( 6) ( 6) ( 6) ( 5) ( 5) ( 5) ( 4) ( 4) ( 4) ( 3) ( 3) ( 3)
2005 84.6 83.4 82.2 81.1 80.0 79.1 78.2 77.3 76.6 75.8 75.1 74.5
( 3) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1)
2006 73.9 73.3 72.8 72.3 71.9 71.5 71.1 70.7 70.5 70.1 69.9 69.6
( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1)
2007 69.8 69.9 70.1 70.3 70.7 71.3 72.0 73.0 74.3 75.7 77.4 79.4
( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 2)
2008 81.9 84.7 87.8 91.2 94.8 98.6 102.7 106.9 111.3 115.7 120.3 124.9
( 2) ( 3) ( 3) ( 4) ( 5) ( 5) ( 6) ( 7) ( 7) ( 8) ( 9) (10)
2009 129.5 134.0 138.6 143.0 147.4 151.5 155.5 159.4 163.0 166.5 169.7 172.6
(11) (12) (12) (13) (14) (14) (15) (15) (16) (16) (17) (17)
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Sunspot Index Data Center (http://www.oma.be/KSB-ORB/SIDC/). Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter and, where needed,
combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 23/24. Values
which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
Where appropriate, an estimate is made of the tolerance for the prediction
and this is given in brackets below each estimated and predicted value.
The tolerance values are based on the uncertainty in the amplitude of the
cycle and are most reasonable for the interval up to, and just beyond,
solar maximum; for later values the errors in the predictions are
dominated by variations in the timing of the cycle.
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://www.ips.gov.au/mail-lists/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc at ips.gov.au
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