[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 03 May - issued 2311UT/02-May-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

On UT day 02-May an unexpected CME arrival was observed at 02/1315UT.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) became enhanced due to the CME
transit and was orientated southwards post shock arrival until
02/1900UT and is currently orientated northwards, an orientation that
reduces induced geomagnetic activity. The planetary Kp index reached
G3 for two k index periods post shock arrival. If the northward
orientation of the solar wind IMF Bz persists, further planetary
geomagnetic G3 storm activity is considered unlikely. The Australian
regional geomagnetic field reached G1 for two K index periods
overnight. The regional geomagnetic field is expected to be at G0-G1
levels for 03-May. The planetary geomagnetic field may initially reach
G2 early in the UT day on 03-May. Degraded HF conditions were observed
in the southern Australian region last night. The southern Australian
regional ionosphere is expected to be depressed by 20-30% for 03-May.
Northern Australian region MUFs are expected to remain near normal.
Solar activity is expected to be R1 for 03-May with two solar regions
showing growth. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible on daylight
HF circuits. No solar radiation storms are expected for 03-May.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au