[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 14 July - issued 0333UT/14-Jul-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

Solar region AR3738 produced an R3 (X1.2) flare at 14/0234UT. A
shortwave fadeout was observed in the northern Australian region in
association with this event impacting lower HF frequencies of
communication. On UT day 14-Jul solar activity is expected to be
R1-R2. Large solar region AR3738 has recently produced two R2 flares.
There is a chance for an isolated R3 flare from this region. The solar
wind is expected to increase from light to moderate due to a coronal
hole wind stream. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic activity is expected. S0,
chance S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be generally normal, with
fair conditions during local night hours for the southern Australian
region. Maximum usable frequencies are expected to be near predicted
values. A shortwave fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies was
observed in the eastern Australian region at 13/2300UT. Further
shortwave fadeouts are probable.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au